Market Report 05.08.2026

US Weather Pressures Corn and Soybeans as Black Sea Export Risks Support Wheat

General market overview

🚢🇺🇦 Black Sea logistics remain challenging. According to Ukrainian agricultural sources, slow grain exports could fill available port storage capacity by the beginning of November.
🚢🇺🇦 No vessels have called at the Port of Odesa for the past two weeks, while alternative routes can handle only around half of the already restricted grain export flow. These routes may not reach full capacity before the end of August.
🌍 Disruptions to Black Sea exports are increasing the risk of higher food costs in importing countries, particularly for buyers heavily dependent on supplies from the region.

🌦️ Weather

🌦️🇺🇸 Over the next five days, rainfall is expected across Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, southern Wisconsin and northern Indiana, pressuring soybeans and corn in key US production areas. However, the rest of the Midwest and Plains will receive very limited rainfall or remain dry. In the 6–14 day outlook, the heat is expected to shift mainly into the southern half of the US.
🌡️🇪🇺 Weather risks remain significant in Europe. Heat has already caused substantial damage to corn production in France and across the EU, while also weakening the wheat outlook in the United Kingdom.

🫛 Soybean complex

📉 CBOT soybeans continue to decline, with the November contract reaching a one-month low after five lower closes in the past seven sessions. Forecast rainfall across key US production areas remains the main source of pressure.
📊🇺🇸 A major clearing firm estimated the US soybean yield at 53 bu/acre, matching USDA’s current forecast. The estimate therefore introduces no additional production risk for the market.
🇨🇳 SinoGrain sold two-thirds of the 500,000 t of soybeans offered from state reserves as it continues clearing storage space for expected US arrivals. Meanwhile, falling prices are testing whether China will return with additional purchases on the decline.
🚢🇺🇸 US soybean exports reached 70.4 million bushels in June, down from 94.4 million bushels in May but still the highest June volume since 2022. Shipments to China totaled 17.4 million bushels, the largest June volume in eight years.
🚢🇦🇷 Argentine maritime pilots held a one-day strike, but an agreement was reached overnight and workers are returning today. The risk of a prolonged disruption to Argentine export logistics has therefore declined.
📉 Export basis levels are not yet showing significant new Chinese interest. Without additional demand or a major shift in weather forecasts, weak soybean performance may continue.

Bottom line: The soybean complex remains under pressure from rainfall in key US production areas, a one-month low in November futures and the absence of a strong new Chinese demand signal. Until China accelerates purchases or weather forecasts change, sellers are likely to remain in control.

🌽 Corn

📉 CBOT corn is moving lower again after the market failed to extend Monday’s rally. Sellers have regained control due to favorable rainfall forecasts for the central and eastern Midwest.
📊🇺🇸 StoneX estimated the US corn yield at 184.8 bu/acre, above USDA’s forecast of 183.0 bu/acre. This reinforces expectations of abundant supply and adds pressure to futures.
🚢🇺🇸 US corn exports in June reached a record for the month. This increases the likelihood that USDA will raise its old-crop export forecast by at least another 50 million bushels in its next report.
🇪🇺 Argus estimates France’s corn crop at a 50-year low of 6.9 MMT, while total EU corn production is forecast to fall 20% y/y to 48 MMT. This could strengthen demand for US corn later in the season.
📉 Positive signals from record US exports and production problems in Europe have not yet offset pressure from favorable US weather. Once the weather outlook is fully priced in, the market may shift its focus toward potential US export opportunities created by the smaller European crop.

Bottom line: Corn remains under pressure from rainfall in the central and eastern Midwest and StoneX’s higher US yield estimate. However, record June exports and a sharp decline in EU production could limit losses once the favorable weather outlook is reflected in prices.

🌾 Wheat

📈 Wheat is trading higher on both CBOT and MATIF after previously testing weekly lows. The fundamental backdrop is providing support, although technical confirmation of a stronger recovery remains limited.
🚢 Slow exports and rising grain inventories in the Black Sea region are pressuring domestic prices in Ukraine and Russia, as freight and insurance costs have increased significantly. This is creating a divergence between elevated logistics risk and weak local prices.
🇷🇺 According to IKAR, Russian wheat exports fell 17–24% y/y in July and could decline by 32–43% y/y in August. This supports the risk of reduced Black Sea availability on the global market.
🇬🇧 The UK wheat crop has been damaged by the same heatwave that affected the EU, while harvesting is already more than halfway complete. Current production estimates are the lowest since records began in 1984.
🚢🇺🇦 Ukraine reports that alternative routes can handle only half of the restricted grain export flow and may not reach full capacity before the end of August. This limits the possibility of a rapid recovery in export volumes.
📈 Fundamental developments are increasingly shifting in favor of buyers, but technical follow-through remains weak. At current levels, the market does not appear attractive for aggressively expanding short positions.

Bottom line: Wheat is gaining on CBOT and MATIF, supported by slow Black Sea exports, lower Russian shipments and a weak UK crop. However, technical momentum remains limited, and another signal of bottom formation is needed to support a more constructive outlook.