Market Report 04.09.2026

General market overview

• 📉 Agricultural markets are mostly extending their correction today after the sharp rally of recent weeks. Wheat continues to decline, soybeans are also lower, while corn is slightly weaker. However, the fundamental backdrop has not changed materially, so the pullback still looks more like profit-taking after an overheated rally.

• 🚢 The Black Sea situation remains unstable following new overnight attacks, providing no evidence of real progress toward a ceasefire or normalization of exports. This keeps grain markets highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines.

• 🌍 The global grain balance remains tight. World grain production is expected to be 61.1 MMT below last year, marking the largest annual decline since 2018. At the same time, global food prices have risen to their highest level since 2022, increasing attention on agricultural markets.

• 📑 Speculative positioning remains a key risk. Large fund longs in soybeans and corn supported the previous trend but could now amplify the correction through profit-taking. In wheat, the fund long remains relatively modest, reducing the risk of forced liquidation.

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🫛 Soybean complex

• 📉 The soybean complex is lower today after an early recovery yesterday, as the market remains vulnerable to profit-taking following the strong previous rally. Shallow pullbacks had been quickly bought, but crowded speculative positioning now increases short-term downside risk.

• 🚢🇨🇳 Chinese demand remains the main support for soybeans. Since last Friday, China and unknown buyers have purchased a combined 1.1 MMT of US soybeans. The upcoming US–China summit could also include measures aimed at supporting sales of US grains and soybeans.

• 🇨🇳 SinoGrain will offer another 68,000 t of reserve soybeans at auction next week. This shows active management of domestic supply in China but does not remove support from import demand.

• 🌦️🇺🇸 US weather still provides support. The share of soybean area under drought increased by another 2 percentage points to 30%, while most growing regions are expected to remain warm and dry. This keeps risk elevated for the final stages of crop development.

• 🚢🇺🇸 US soybean export sales for the week ended August 27 were -94,200 t for the current marketing year due to cancellations, but 1.948 MMT for the new marketing year, bringing total sales to 1.854 MMT. New-season commitments reached 36.0% of USDA’s forecast, versus the 27.7% five-year average.

• 🚢🇺🇸 Soybean meal sales were exceptionally strong at 731,200 t in total, including 701,900 t for the new marketing year. This was the strongest new-crop sales figure in 12 years, providing significant support to the product side of the soybean complex.

• 🛢️ Soybean oil sales remained moderate at 5,300 t in total, including 4,000 t for the new marketing year. New-season commitments have already reached 4.9% of USDA’s forecast, compared with the 2.2% five-year average.

• 📈 Technically, the soybean trend remains strong as pullbacks are still relatively shallow and have not triggered significant long liquidation. This confirms underlying resilience, although crowded positioning remains a risk for a sharper correction.

Bottom line: The soybean complex is lower today on profit-taking after the strong rally and concerns over crowded fund longs. However, active Chinese buying, strong new-crop sales, exceptionally strong soybean meal demand and worsening US drought conditions continue to provide fundamental support.

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🌽 Corn

• 📉 Corn is slightly lower today after yesterday’s recovery as the market takes some profit following the strong previous rally. However, buyers have been quick to step in on shallow pullbacks, while the fundamental backdrop remains supportive.

• 🇪🇺 The European corn balance continues to deteriorate. EU corn yield was cut by another 1% to 6.59 t/ha, reinforcing expectations for lower domestic production and greater import requirements.

• 🇫🇷 French corn conditions declined by another 1 percentage point to 27% good/excellent, compared with 62% last year, while production is expected to fall 35% y/y. Harvest has started at 3%, versus the 1% average, meaning the market should soon receive more evidence on the scale of crop losses.

• 🌡️🇫🇷 A fifth heatwave of the season is approaching France, adding risk to the final stage of the corn season. A €1 billion farmer support package underlines the scale of production stress.

• 🌽🇺🇸 The share of US corn area under drought increased by 1 percentage point to 28%. Warm and dry conditions across most growing regions continue to pose risk to the final stage of crop development.

• 🚜🇦🇷 Argentina’s corn harvest reached 92.5%. This adds South American supply but does not change the broader support coming from weaker EU production, US weather risks and a strong technical structure.

• 🚢🇺🇸 US corn export sales for the week ended August 27 were -829,600 t for the current marketing year due to cancellations, but 1.986 MMT for the new marketing year, bringing total sales to 1.157 MMT. New-season commitments reached 17.8% of USDA’s forecast, versus the 22.1% five-year average.

• 📑 Corn open interest increased by another 15,500 contracts to its highest level since late June. The large fund long remains a risk, but pullbacks have not yet been deep enough to trigger significant liquidation.

• 📈 Both the technical and fundamental outlook for corn remain positive. As long as buyers continue to step in quickly on weakness, the market retains an upward bias.

Bottom line: Corn is slightly lower today on profit-taking after the strong rally, but remains supported by worsening European production, historically weak French crop conditions, expanding US drought and active buying on dips. Crowded fund positioning remains a risk but has not yet triggered meaningful long liquidation.

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🌾 Wheat

• 📉 Wheat continues to decline today following yesterday’s sharp early selloff, when the market nearly reached limit-down before recovering roughly half of the losses by the close. Volatility remains very high and the market is highly sensitive to headlines, although deeper pullbacks continue to attract support.

• 🚢🇺🇦 Ukrainian wheat remains under significant logistics pressure. Asian buyers are already shifting toward Australian and Argentine origin because US wheat is substantially more expensive. This confirms a change in trade flows caused by Black Sea disruptions.

• 🌾🇺🇸 The share of US winter wheat area under drought increased by 3 percentage points to 59%, compared with 34% last year, while HRS area under drought rose another 2 percentage points to 82%. This maintains strong weather-related support for the wheat market.

• 🌦️🇨🇦 Rainfall across southern Canada and parts of the northern US Plains next week could improve moisture conditions for spring wheat. However, the southern half of the Plains is expected to remain under extremely hot and dry conditions at least through mid-month.

• 🌦️🇺🇦 Warm weather is expected across Ukraine over the next two weeks, but more active rainfall could partly improve soil moisture and allow winter wheat planting to continue. The previous moisture deficit remains significant: from April through August, western Ukraine received only 37–50% of normal rainfall, while central, northern and eastern regions received 55–80%.

• 🚢🇺🇸 US wheat export sales for the week ended August 27 totaled 313,500 t for the current marketing year and zero for the new marketing year. Cumulative commitments reached 40.7% of USDA’s forecast, compared with the 45.0% five-year average.

• 📑 The fund long in wheat remains relatively modest at below 10,000 contracts. This makes the market less vulnerable to forced liquidation than soybeans and corn.

• 📈 The longer-term wheat trend remains upward, and pullbacks are likely to stay supported as long as there are no real signs of easing Black Sea disruptions. At the same time, volatility is likely to remain high due to sensitivity to geopolitical headlines.

Bottom line: Wheat continues to decline today but remains supported by logistics pressure on Ukrainian origin, Asian buyers shifting toward Australia and Argentina, worsening drought for US winter and spring wheat, Ukraine’s moisture deficit and relatively modest fund positioning. Volatility may remain high, but pullbacks should remain supported while there are no clear signs of easing Black Sea disruptions.