Market Report 04.08.2026

Crop stress and logistics risks support prices, but weak technicals continue to limit the recovery.

General market overview

🚢 Black Sea risk remains significant, but the market is reacting less strongly to new attacks. Russia struck another 8 Ukrainian vessels overnight, while Ukraine attacked 3 Russian port warehouses.
🚢🇪🇺 Water levels on the Rhine have fallen to a record low, while European transportation costs are rising as low water restricts barge loading. This is increasing logistics pressure across the EU market.
🌍 Risks surrounding Iran have intensified again after the US president said negotiations were not progressing quickly enough. This supports the geopolitical backdrop, although grain markets are currently responding more to weather, crop conditions and technical signals.

🫛 Soybean complex

📉 CBOT soybeans are retreating today after a strong close in the previous session, although the extended forecast shows heat returning to the Midwest. Sellers retain a cautious advantage, but further gains following yesterday’s recovery could ease some of the technical pressure.
🌦️🇺🇸 US soybean conditions were unchanged at 63% good/excellent, compared with 69% last year. Pod setting reached 56%, in line with the average pace.
🇨🇳 Following China’s purchase of around 1 MMT of US soybeans last Friday, the market is watching for additional flash sales. Strong Chinese buying on the price decline is partly offsetting the favorable US weather outlook.
🏭 US soybean crush reached 217.8 million bushels in June, matching expectations and setting a new record for the month. Strong crush rates remain an important source of domestic demand.
🛢️ US soybean oil stocks totaled 2.097 billion pounds in June, compared with 2.316 billion pounds a month earlier and 1.894 billion pounds last year. Stocks are below the seasonal average but remain higher year on year.
🇮🇳 India’s Sunvin Group estimates that the country’s oilseed production could decline by 5–8% y/y this season because of weak monsoon rainfall. This may support import demand for vegetable oils.
🚢🇺🇸 US soybean export inspections totaled 344,000 t in the week ended July 30. Cumulative inspections are 17.8% below last year, but have already reached 95.1% of USDA’s forecast, compared with the 93.1% five-year average.
📉 Yesterday’s intraday reversal higher partly reduced bearish pressure, but there is still insufficient evidence of a short-term bottom. The market needs follow-through buying to return the advantage to buyers.

Bottom line: The soybean complex remains mixed. Strong US crush, lower soybean oil stocks and Chinese demand provide support, but favorable rainfall forecasts and weak technical structure continue to limit the recovery. Sellers retain a cautious advantage for now.

🌽 Corn

📉 Corn is trading lower today on both CBOT and MATIF.
🌽🇺🇸 US corn conditions declined by 2 percentage points to 61% good/excellent, compared with 73% last year. This was the third consecutive weekly deterioration, while the share rated poor/very poor increased to 14%.
🌦️🇺🇸 Crop stress persists across the southern half of the Plains, where the NWS is warning about the risk of a rapidly developing drought. Rain is expected across southern Iowa and northern Illinois later this week, but the western crop belt will receive only limited precipitation.
🇪🇺 Scattered rainfall is possible in the EU this week, but temperatures are expected to remain above normal. Heat will also move into Ukraine, maintaining weather-related risk for corn.
⛽🇺🇸 US corn use for ethanol declined by 1.5% m/m in June but was 4.4% higher y/y. DDG production increased by 2.5% m/m, although it remained 3% below last year.
🚢🇺🇸 US corn export inspections reached 1.885 MMT in the week ended July 30. Cumulative inspections are 25.4% above last year and have reached 91.5% of USDA’s forecast, compared with the 82.8% five-year average.
🛢️ Corn must again overcome weakness in the energy market to extend yesterday’s recovery. Crude oil is down by more than $2/bbl today, creating a headwind for the biofuel segment.

Bottom line: Corn is supported by deteriorating crop conditions, drought risk in the southern Plains and strong export inspections. However, weaker crude oil and a mixed weather outlook leave the market vulnerable. Follow-through buying is needed to shift the advantage toward buyers.

🌾 Wheat

📉 Wheat opened near the session lows and closed closer to the highs yesterday, but is retreating again today following an improvement in HRS conditions and a higher Canadian wheat production estimate.
🌾🇺🇸 US spring wheat conditions improved by 2 percentage points to 55% good/excellent, despite market expectations for deterioration after a sharp increase in drought-affected acreage. Spring wheat harvest reached 5%, which is 4 percentage points below the 10-year average.
🚜🇺🇸 US winter wheat harvest reached 86%, matching the 10-year average and running 1 percentage point ahead of last year.
🚢 Black Sea risk remains supportive, but the market appears increasingly tired of reacting to new attacks. Russian wheat prices declined by $7–9/t over the week amid elevated freight and insurance costs.
🚢🇪🇺 Record-low Rhine water levels are adding further logistics pressure to the European wheat market.
🚢🇩🇿 Algeria announced a tender for a nominal 50,000 t of wheat, although the country regularly purchases significantly more than the initial tender volume. This provides a separate signal of import demand.
🚢🇺🇸 US wheat export inspections totaled 335,000 t in the week ended July 30. Cumulative inspections are 27.4% below last year and equal 13.8% of USDA’s forecast, compared with the 15.4% five-year average.
📑 Funds continue to hold a moderate net short position in wheat. If the market extends yesterday’s recovery, it could trigger another round of short covering.

Bottom line: Wheat is supported by Black Sea risks, European logistics disruptions and potential Algerian import demand. However, improved HRS conditions and weaker US export inspections are limiting the recovery. Confirmation of follow-through buying is needed to change the short-term tone.