Market Report 03.11.2026

Soybeans, corn and wheat face supply pressure as Black Sea risks rise

🌍 General market overview

🇺🇸 Markets remain cautious ahead of the US midterm elections on November 3. For the agricultural sector, the main risks concern potential changes in fiscal, trade, and regulatory policies that could influence commodity demand and market sentiment.
🛢️📈 Crude oil initially rebounded after Monday's sharp decline as a quick diplomatic resolution to the conflict involving Iran remained uncertain. However, oil prices came under renewed pressure later in the session. Energy market volatility continues to influence the biofuel sector and vegetable oils.
⚠️🌊 Black Sea and Danube security risks have intensified following another series of attacks on commercial shipping and Russian claims of strikes against port infrastructure in Kiliia. The latest Russian military claims have not been independently verified, but the broader escalation raises risks for Ukrainian export flows and adds a logistics risk premium to grain markets.

🫛 Soybean complex

📉 CBOT soybeans are moving lower again after a failed recovery attempt. Long liquidation, soybean meal weakness, and improving Brazilian crop prospects are outweighing support from strong US export demand.
🚢🇨🇳 USDA confirmed a new sale of 136,000 t of soybeans to China, while weekly export inspections reached 2.445 MMT. Cumulative inspections totaled 12.18 MMT, up approximately 56% y/y. However, the market is becoming less responsive to individual Chinese purchases.
🏭🇺🇸 US soybean crush totaled 198.8 million bushels in September, down 5.2% m/m and approximately 3% y/y. Meanwhile, soybean oil stocks fell to 1.457 billion pounds, nearly 18% below last year, providing underlying support for the vegetable oil market.
📦🇨🇳 Chinese soybean oil inventories have approached 1.5 MMT, while soybean meal stocks also remain elevated. Processing volumes continue to exceed domestic consumption, adding pressure to global soybean product markets.
🛢️ US biofuel demand has also weakened. Soybean oil use declined 17% m/m in August, while canola oil consumption increased. The early recovery in crude oil offered only temporary support against this demand-side pressure.
🌴 Additional pressure comes from palm oil. Malaysian inventories could exceed 3 MMT, while Indonesia lowered its November CPO reference price by 6.1%, improving the competitiveness of Indonesian exports and intensifying competition for US soybean oil.
🚜🇧🇷 Brazilian soybean planting has reached approximately 53%, compared with 47% last year. Favorable rainfall across central producing states has improved early crop development. Production expectations near 182 MMT and the absence of significant weather risk continue to weigh on CBOT prices.
🇦🇷 Argentina has planted approximately 2.3% of its intended soybean area. Soil moisture remains adequate across most major growing regions, limiting the emergence of a South American weather risk premium.

Bottom line: Soybeans remain under pressure from fund liquidation, ample US production, weakness in processed products, and expectations for a large Brazilian crop. Strong US exports and tight domestic soybean oil inventories are limiting losses but have not reversed the negative short-term sentiment.

🌽 Corn

📉 CBOT corn is moving lower again following a brief recovery attempt. Large US supplies and favorable South American production prospects continue to outweigh generally positive demand signals.
🚢🇲🇽 USDA confirmed a sale of 1.73 MMT of US corn to Mexico, including 594,360 t for the 2027/28 marketing year. The transaction ranks among the largest individual sales reported by USDA and demonstrates strong forward demand following the price decline.
🚢🇺🇸 Weekly corn export inspections reached 884,800 t, up 39% w/w. However, cumulative inspections remain approximately 13% below last year, meaning the large Mexican purchase primarily improves the forward demand outlook rather than current shipments.
🏭🇺🇸 US corn consumption for ethanol production totaled 438.4 million bushels in September, approximately 0.7% higher y/y. The biofuel sector remains one of the most consistent sources of domestic corn demand.
🚜🇺🇸 US corn harvesting advanced to 74% complete, compared with 60% a week earlier and the 77% five-year average. Additional rainfall could delay remaining fieldwork locally but is unlikely to materially change overall production potential.
🚜🇧🇷🇦🇷 Brazil's first-crop corn planting is approximately 63% complete, while rapid soybean planting is improving prospects for timely safrinha sowing. In Argentina, corn planting is approaching 47%, reinforcing expectations for substantial future South American supplies.
🚢🇺🇦 Ukraine exported only around 250,000 t of corn in October, compared with 941,000 t a year earlier. Continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics could redirect some international demand toward the US and South America.
🚢🇪🇬 Freight rates for a 6,000 t corn cargo from Ukrainian Danube ports to Egypt have climbed to approximately $120/t, reflecting limited vessel availability, congestion at Sulina, and elevated war risks. These costs significantly weaken Ukrainian competitiveness in Mediterranean markets.

Bottom line: Corn remains under pressure from large US supplies and expectations for substantial South American production. Strong Mexican purchases, stable ethanol demand, and Ukrainian logistics disruptions provide support, but have not yet established a sustainable price reversal.

🌾 Wheat

📉 Wheat is trading lower as extremely weak US export inspections, competitive Russian offers, and large Southern Hemisphere supplies outweigh support from poor US winter wheat conditions and longer-term production risks.
🚢🇺🇸 Weekly US wheat export inspections collapsed to 75,413 t, the lowest weekly volume since records began in 1983. Cumulative inspections since June 1 reached 7.528 MMT, approximately 36% below last year, highlighting a sharp deterioration in export performance.
🚜🇺🇸 US winter wheat planting reached 83%, compared with the 84% five-year average, while emergence reached 65%. The main concern is crop condition: only 44% was rated good/excellent, compared with market expectations near 50%, while 18% was rated poor/very poor.
🚢🇷🇺 Russian 12.5% protein wheat from Baltic ports is offered around $258–261/t FOB, approximately $5/t cheaper than Western European origin and $10/t below Romanian wheat. This price advantage is intensifying competition in international markets.
🚢🇪🇬 Egyptian importers are postponing new purchases in anticipation of further price declines. 12.5% wheat CIF Egypt is assessed near $306/t, down $12/t w/w, according to Platts. A weaker Egyptian pound is also restricting purchasing power.
🚢🇷🇺 Russia continues to rely on Baltic and other alternative export routes, with October wheat shipments estimated at approximately 3 MMT. These channels help maintain Russian export availability despite disruptions to traditional Black Sea logistics.
🇦🇷 The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its Argentine wheat production forecast to 23.8 MMT, potentially the second-largest crop on record. Abundant supply is pressuring prices, although a strong El Niño could complicate harvesting from mid-November and increase quality risks.
🌧️🇦🇺 Excessive rainfall in Australia continues to increase the risk of pre-harvest sprouting, lower falling numbers, and higher drying costs. Overall production remains substantial, but the share of high-quality milling wheat could decline.
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russian winter crop planting is progressing at its slowest pace since approximately 2013, while around one-third of Ukraine's winter wheat area faces moisture deficits. These conditions pose risks to the 2027 harvest and may limit further downside in deferred contracts.

Bottom line: Wheat remains under pressure from weak US shipments, competitively priced Russian supplies, and Argentina's large harvest. Poor US winter wheat conditions, El Niño-related risks, and potential Australian quality losses are limiting the downside, but have yet to outweigh immediate supply pressure.