Market Report 03.08.2026

US weather keeps CBOT markets under pressure, while Black Sea risks and European crop concerns support MATIF grains.

General market overview

🚢 Black Sea risk remains elevated after new Russian attacks on four cargo vessels in Ukrainian ports. However, the market reaction has been relatively limited as Ukraine works on alternative routes to restore grain shipments.
🚢🇺🇦 The Ukrainian government is expected to present proposals for alternative export routes early this week. This may reduce the market’s sensitivity to Black Sea risks, which are already partly reflected in prices.
🚢🇷🇺 The Russian Grain Union warned that exports could stop completely if attacks continue. This preserves the risk of localized supply shortages for countries dependent on Black Sea wheat.
🌍 Geopolitical risk around the Strait of Hormuz has partly lost influence as a futures-market driver, as traders assess lower shipping risks following the start of talks concerning Iran.

🌦️ Weather

🌦️🇺🇸 Heavy weekend rainfall reached eastern Iowa, parts of Illinois and Indiana, and southern Minnesota. This week, the best rainfall chances are expected in Iowa, neighboring states, and the Great Lakes region, while the western Corn Belt and southern Plains should remain mostly dry.
🌡️🇪🇺 Weather risks remain in Europe. Western Europe continues to experience warm conditions, while heat in Southeastern Europe is creating problems not only for agriculture but also for the energy sector due to low water levels.

🫛 Soybean complex

📉 CBOT soybeans are trading lower today, even though China reportedly purchased at least 13 cargoes of US soybeans on Friday. The lack of a positive reaction to strong demand news points to a weak market tone.
🌦️🇺🇸 Rainfall in eastern Iowa, parts of Illinois and Indiana, and southern Minnesota arrived during an important stage of pod development. This supports bearish sentiment in soybeans, although parts of the western belt remain excessively dry.
📑 COT data showed that Managed Money increased its soybean net long position by 30,101 contracts to 155,001 contracts. The large fund long raises the risk of further liquidation if prices continue to weaken.
📑 In soybean meal, Managed Money increased its net long position by 13,503 contracts to 88,655 contracts. In soybean oil, funds reduced their net long position by 15,493 contracts to 109,855 contracts.
🏭 USDA will publish June soybean processing data this afternoon. The market expects crush at 217.9 million bushels, compared with 196.9 million bushels last year. Soybean oil stocks are expected at 2.113 billion pounds, up 11.5% y/y.
📉 Technical signals favored sellers last week, with 4 of 5 sessions closing lower. If even strong Chinese purchases were unable to reverse the market higher, sellers retain a clear advantage.

Bottom line: Soybeans remain under pressure from a favorable US weather outlook, weak technicals, and the risk of liquidation from the large fund long. Chinese purchases support demand, but the lack of a positive market reaction shows that sellers remain in control in the short term.

🌽 Corn

📉 CBOT corn is trading lower today, while MATIF corn is moving higher. CBOT is pressured by favorable US rainfall, while MATIF is supported by risks to the European crop.
🌦️🇺🇸 Favorable rainfall across the central Midwest is removing part of the weather premium built during the first half of July. Pollination risks have passed without significant stress across the main production areas.
📑 COT positioning looks negative for corn. Managed Money increased its net long position by 75,490 contracts to 168,399 contracts. Such a sharp increase in longs raises the risk of further fund selling if prices continue to decline.
📉 Corn demand remains solid and may limit the risk of retesting the June lows. However, without bullish weather, the market is currently more focused on prospects for a strong US crop.

Bottom line: CBOT corn remains under pressure from favorable US rainfall, the end of pollination risks, and the possibility of fund long liquidation. MATIF is rising on European crop concerns, but sellers retain the short-term advantage on CBOT.

🌾 Wheat

📈 CBOT wheat is attempting to recover after the recent decline, while MATIF wheat is moving higher. European crop problems are supporting MATIF prices.
📉 Friday’s session was weak for wheat buyers. The market failed to retain support from Black Sea risks and closed notably lower, indicating that part of the geopolitical premium is already reflected in prices.
🇪🇺 European crop problems remain supportive. One of France’s largest grain operators reported yields down 4.5% y/y, while Poland estimated its 2026 winter wheat production 11% below last year due to unfavorable weather.
🚢🇰🇷 South Korea is holding a tender today to purchase 50,000 t of US wheat, providing an additional signal of import demand.
📑 COT data showed that Managed Money reduced its net short position in Chicago wheat by 12,469 contracts to 6,880 contracts. In KC wheat, funds increased their net long position by 3,289 contracts to 33,233 contracts.
📊 Open interest in Chicago wheat increased by slightly more than 6,700 contracts on Friday and is near a seven-week high. This confirms active market participation, but after the technical failure, sellers retain the advantage.
📉 Black Sea geopolitical risks currently appear largely priced in, as the market failed to rally on reports of continued attacks. A stronger wheat recovery would require either a new export disruption or support from corn and soybeans.

Bottom line: CBOT wheat is attempting to recover, but Friday’s technical failure leaves sellers in the stronger position. MATIF looks firmer due to crop problems in France and Poland, while Black Sea risk is no longer generating the same bullish impact as before.