Market Report 02.11.2026

Soybeans face selling pressure as corn and wheat attempt to recover amid fund liquidation and global supply risks

🌍 General market overview

🛢️📉 Crude oil is falling sharply today amid renewed diplomatic contacts surrounding the conflict with Iran. This weakens support for the biofuel sector and vegetable oils, although the risk of renewed escalation has not disappeared.
💵 The US dollar is slightly weaker, moderately improving the competitiveness of US agricultural exports and partially offsetting pressure from other external factors.
🇺🇸 Markets are also preparing for the US midterm elections on November 3. For agricultural commodities, the main risk is not the election result itself but potential changes in fiscal policy, regulation, budget deficits, and bond yields, which could influence the dollar and overall risk appetite.

🫛 Soybean complex

📉 CBOT soybeans are trading lower. Continued speculative long liquidation, rapid Brazilian planting, and a weaker energy backdrop for soybean oil are the main sources of pressure, while strong US export demand is only limiting the decline.
📊 Speculative capital continues to exit the soybean complex. Managed Money reduced its net long position in soybeans by another 21,500 contracts to 185,400, while liquidation in soybean meal was even more aggressive. Weakness in meal and the unwinding of crowded long positions remain major drivers of the current decline.
🚢🇺🇸 US export demand remains exceptionally strong. Total soybean export commitments reached 28.78 MMT, approximately 80% above last year and already 62% of USDA's annual export forecast. China remains a key fundamental buffer for the market.
🚢🇨🇳 China is broadly on track to meet its stated US soybean purchase targets. However, much of this demand is already priced in, meaning a fresh wave of large purchases would be needed to reverse the current negative momentum.
🚜🇧🇷 Brazilian soybean planting accelerated to 53% complete, up from 40% a week earlier and 47% last year. More evenly distributed rainfall in Mato Grosso has reduced replanting concerns, while rapid overall progress is removing weather premium from new-crop prices.
🌦️🇧🇷 Longer-term weather risks have not disappeared. NOAA maintains its outlook for a strong El Niño, making rainfall distribution across central Brazil in November and December an important market factor. For now, the near-term forecast looks more favorable.
🛢️📉 The sharp decline in crude oil is another negative factor for soybean oil, weakening biodiesel economics. High palm oil inventories and more competitive Indonesian offers are also limiting the recovery potential of vegetable oils.

Bottom line: Soybeans remain under pressure from the liquidation of large long positions, improving Brazilian crop prospects, and weakness in soybean oil. Strong Chinese demand and overall US exports are cushioning the decline but have not generated enough momentum for a sustained reversal.

🌽 Corn

📈 CBOT corn is attempting a modest recovery after October's sharp decline. The current move appears largely technical following extensive fund liquidation, while fundamental pressure from ample global supplies and weaker US exports remains significant.
📊 Managed Money reduced its net long corn position by approximately 90,300 contracts to 55,900 over the past week. Following such substantial liquidation, positioning is less crowded, leaving the market technically better positioned for a corrective rebound.
🚢🇺🇸 US export performance remains weaker than soybeans. Total corn export commitments stand at approximately 23.5 MMT, down 34% y/y and representing only 28% of USDA's annual forecast. This continues to limit the recovery potential of CBOT futures.
🚜🇧🇷 Brazil's first-crop corn planting reached 63%, while rapid soybean planting increases the likelihood of timely and potentially larger second-crop corn planting. Combined with a weaker Brazilian real, this strengthens expectations of future competition from Brazil.
🚜🇦🇷 Argentina has planted approximately 47.3% of its projected corn area, compared with around 33% on average for this period. Favorable soil moisture supports planting, leaving South America without a significant weather risk premium for now.
🇪🇺 The European Commission lowered its 2026/27 EU corn production forecast to 47.0 MMT, down from 48.3 MMT. Reduced domestic availability increases Europe's import requirements and provides support for external suppliers.
🌧️🇺🇸 New rainfall across the US Corn Belt may locally slow the final stages of harvesting but will no longer alter the crop's production potential. At current low prices, limited farmer selling may also help contain further pressure on the physical market.

Bottom line: Corn's modest rebound is supported by oversold conditions, reduced farmer selling, and a lower EU production forecast. However, weaker US exports, rapid South American planting, and prospects for a large Brazilian safrinha crop still prevent a convincing trend reversal.

🌾 Wheat

📈 Wheat is trading slightly higher after nine consecutive weeks of declines. Stronger US export sales and a very large speculative short position are providing support, while expectations of increased Russian supply and the approaching Southern Hemisphere harvest continue to limit gains.
📊 Managed Money increased its net short position in Chicago SRW wheat to approximately 74,900 contracts, while Kansas City HRW also moved into a modest net short. Such positioning remains a bearish factor but increases the market's sensitivity to positive news and the risk of aggressive short covering.
🚢🇺🇸 US export demand has improved noticeably. The latest weekly export report showed approximately 850,000 t in sales, the highest of the current marketing year. However, total commitments remain around 29% below last year, meaning one strong week has not yet eliminated the seasonal deficit.
🚢🇨🇳 COFCO's inquiry for US soft red winter (SRW) wheat remains a potentially supportive signal, but no large Chinese purchase has been confirmed. The market therefore sees this as a possible catalyst rather than an established new source of demand.
🚢🇷🇺 Expectations of gradually increasing Russian exports remain a major source of pressure. The partial reopening of routes through the Sea of Azov, the redirection of shipments via the Baltic, and trials involving Murmansk demonstrate Russia's continued search for alternative grain export routes.
⚠️ However, Russian logistics have not fully normalized. Azov transit permissions remain temporary, alternative routes are more expensive and less efficient, and Russian exports are still below last year's levels. These constraints limit the potential for another sharp decline.
🇪🇺 The European Commission lowered its forecasts for EU soft wheat production and ending stocks, tightening the European balance sheet somewhat. This is supportive in isolation but has not yet outweighed expectations of increasing global supply.
🌧️🇦🇺 Renewed rainfall in Australia continues to raise grain quality concerns, including sprouting and mold in some regions. The overall harvest remains large, but the proportion of high-quality milling wheat could be lower.
🚜🇦🇷 Argentina's wheat harvest has reached 6.7% complete. A large crop is gradually entering the market, although persistent moisture, cool weather, and limited sunshine create quality risks and may support premiums for milling wheat.
🌍 Negotiation signals surrounding the war in Ukraine remain another important factor for wheat. Meaningful progress toward a ceasefire would likely pressure prices through the potential expansion of Black Sea trade flows, while failed negotiations could trigger rapid short covering given the current large speculative short position.

Bottom line: Wheat is receiving some support from stronger US demand and substantial speculative short positioning, increasing the potential for a technical rebound. However, Russian export routes, the new Southern Hemisphere harvest, and negotiations surrounding the Black Sea continue to limit prospects for sustained gains.