Market Report 02.10.2026

Soybeans and corn slip as US harvest pressure builds, while wheat extends its recovery

General market overview

📊 US agricultural markets are trading mixed today. Soybeans and corn are lower, while wheat is attempting to extend its recovery for a second consecutive session. For soybeans and corn, the prospects of faster US harvesting and updated supply estimates are becoming increasingly important, while wheat is balancing higher global production against constraints on Black Sea exports.
🌴📉 Palm oil continues to create a negative backdrop for the vegetable oil complex. Malaysian futures fell to a 12-week low amid weak exports, rising production and expectations that inventories could increase above 3 MMT.

🫛 Soybean complex

📉 CBOT soybeans are extending losses today after a weak previous session. Fund selling and expectations for faster US harvesting continue to pressure the market. Performance across the complex is mixed: soybean meal is also lower, while soybean oil is showing a modest recovery.
🏭🇺🇸 US soybean crush reached an August record of 209.6 million bushels, up 5.9% y/y. However, crush declined 5.5% from July and came in around 1 million bushels below expectations, meaning strong domestic demand did not provide a positive surprise.
🛢️🇺🇸 US soybean oil stocks fell to 1.696 billion pounds at the end of August, down 13.6% m/m and 5.1% y/y. The larger-than-expected decline is providing separate support to soybean oil and helps explain its stronger performance today relative to soybeans and meal.
🌱🇺🇸 StoneX raised its US soybean yield forecast by 1.1 bpa to 54.1 bpa and increased its production estimate to 4.648 billion bushels. The higher private crop estimate adds pressure from the US supply side.
🇧🇷 StoneX estimates Brazil’s 2026/27 soybean crop at a record 183.36 MMT. The forecast was only slightly reduced from 183.50 MMT and remains around 0.4% above last season, keeping the prospect of very large South American supplies in place.
🌦️🇧🇷 Weather conditions for Brazilian planting remain mixed. Central and northern areas should have a favorable near-term fieldwork window, but dry and very hot conditions may return later, while southern Brazil and Paraguay face the risk of excessive rainfall.
🌤️🇺🇸 In the US, the spread of drier weather following earlier rainfall delays could allow soybean harvesting to accelerate. Increasing arrivals of new-crop supplies over the coming days remain a seasonal source of price pressure.

Bottom line: Soybeans remain under pressure from prospects for faster US harvesting, a higher US crop estimate and expectations for record Brazilian supply. Strong US crush and sharply lower soybean oil stocks provide some support, but weak palm oil and seasonal growth in new-crop availability continue to weigh on the market.

🌽 Corn

📉 CBOT corn is slightly lower again today after yesterday’s attempt to stabilize. Large US carryout stocks and weaker export demand continue to pressure the market, while a lower US crop forecast is only partially limiting losses.
🌽🇺🇸 StoneX lowered its US corn yield forecast by 0.8 bpa to 182.1 bpa and cut production by 92 million bushels to 16.115 billion bushels. The revision provides some supply-side support, but so far it has not been enough to reverse the broader pressure.
🏭🇺🇸 Corn use for US ethanol production reached 477.7 million bushels in August, up 0.3% from July and 4% y/y. For the completed marketing year, the sector used around 5.547 billion bushels, confirming resilient industrial demand.
🚢🇧🇷 StoneX cut its forecast for Brazilian corn exports in 2025/26 by 2 MMT to 40 MMT. Shipments are being pressured by competition from Argentina’s record crop, less attractive port prices and higher domestic consumption.
🇧🇷 At the same time, Brazil’s 2026/27 first-crop corn production forecast was maintained at 29.3 MMT, up 2.4% from the previous season. At this stage, no significant reduction in first-crop supply is expected.
📑🌽 FAO lowered its forecast for global coarse grain production by 3.3 MMT, mainly because of weaker corn prospects following heat and drought in the US and EU. This provides some support to the global supply balance.
📉 However, FAO also cut its global corn consumption forecast by 4.6 MMT due to weaker feed use in Egypt, the EU and US. The demand reduction exceeds the production downgrade and partly offsets support from tighter supply.
🚢🇪🇺 FAO also reduced its forecast for EU corn exports due to lower available supply, potentially reducing Europe’s role in the international market.
🚢🇺🇦 Ukraine’s corn export forecast was also reduced because of logistics constraints. The adjustment reflects weaker shipment capacity rather than another cut to the Ukrainian crop estimate.
🌽🇫🇷 Harvest results in France are prompting some participants in the physical market to question the current official production estimate. Field signals point to the risk of a smaller crop, although the official forecast has not yet been revised.
🌧️🇺🇸 The effects of earlier heavy rainfall and flooding are still delaying harvest in parts of Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri and Illinois. A drier outlook should gradually improve conditions, but machinery will not be able to return immediately to all fields.

Bottom line: Corn is slightly lower again as large US stocks and weaker export demand continue to set the market tone. A lower US crop forecast, resilient ethanol use and logistics constraints on Ukrainian exports provide support, but weaker global consumption expectations and the prospect of faster US harvesting continue to limit recovery.

🌾 Wheat

📈 CBOT wheat is attempting to extend its recovery for a second consecutive session. Part of the support comes from short covering after the previous decline, while there are still no signs of an equally strong improvement in US export demand.
📑🌾 FAO raised its forecast for global wheat production by 3.2 MMT to 813.9 MMT, mainly due to improved prospects in Australia. However, expected production remains 3.3% below last year.
📦 FAO also raised its wheat stocks forecast for major exporting countries. In Australia, this reflects a larger crop, while inventories in Russia and Ukraine could increase because of weaker export capacity.
🚢🇺🇦 Expectations for Ukrainian wheat exports were also reduced due to logistics constraints. Higher projected shipments from Kazakhstan only partly offset weaker flows from Russia and Ukraine.
🚢🇹🇳 Tunisia purchased around 100,000 t of durum wheat in four 25,000 t consignments. Prices were estimated at around $358.29-383.92/t C&F, with shipments scheduled for autumn and early winter.
⚠️🚢 The Tunisian tender also explicitly addressed Black Sea supply risks. War-related circumstances in the region are not accepted as grounds for non-performance, and sellers must replace the grain origin if necessary. This shows how Black Sea logistics risk is increasingly being reflected directly in international contract terms.
🚢🇫🇷 The French physical market is receiving support from new export shipments. Around 55,000 t of wheat is being shipped from Rouen to Yemen this week, alongside additional deliveries to other African destinations.

Bottom line: Wheat is trying to extend its recovery, although part of the move still reflects short covering rather than a sharp improvement in demand. FAO’s higher global production forecast weighs on the balance, but weaker export prospects from Russia and Ukraine, fresh tender demand and active French shipments continue to support the physical market.